New REG Publication - Development and validation of the PRECISE-X model: predicting first severe exacerbation in COPD
NEW REG Publication
Development and validation of the PRECISE-X model: predicting first severe exacerbation in COPD
We are delighted to share our latest publication, “Development and validation of the PRECISE-X model: predicting first severe exacerbation in COPD”, now published in Thorax.
Severe COPD exacerbations lead to hospitalisation, increased mortality, reduced quality of life, and substantial healthcare burden. Yet existing tools offer limited guidance for identifying patients at risk of a first severe exacerbation in routine clinical practice.
Using UK CPRD Aurum data (2004–2022), we developed PRECISE-X, a novel prediction model that estimates the risk of a first severe COPD exacerbation over 5 years and 12 months using routinely collected clinical data, validated across nine practice regions in the UK.
The PRECISE-X model demonstrated strong discrimination, good calibration, and positive net benefit, highlighting its unique potential to identify high-risk patients at the time of COPD diagnosis and support earlier, more targeted management strategies.
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2025/12/31/thorax-2025-223770
